It seems that we just can’t get past this never-ending catastrophe called Brexit. It has been over 3 years since the UK Majority voted to leave the European Union. In that time two prime ministers have resigned and one rather unique one has presented himself… Boris Johnson. In my previous article I touched on Boris’s possible agenda which turned out to be true, he would seek to prorogue parliament. While he made attempts that inadvertently succeded, he failed to reach his true goal of proroguing parliament long enough to reach a no-deal Brexit. His actions gave rise to the ‘ Benn- Act’, a bill rubber-stamped by the Queen which will prevent a no-deal exit if the UK and EU cannot a reach deal cometh October 31st. So, in other words, a no-deal Brexit is essentially illegal.
It seems pretty straight forward, right? Make an adequate deal that best serves the interests of UK citizens and the rest of the EU. Yet surprisingly enough that’s just not as clear cut for Boris as it is for us. The prime minister has presented a deal to the Eu but it was reported that the deal was insufficient and may cause disruption for other EU countries especially the Republic of Ireland. The PM has also refused to release the details of the deal he presented as it may hinder negotiations. One of the main talking points of the negotiations is the Irish backstop. Former Pm Theresa May had agreed on a Backstop with the EU and Ireland. Yet it is almost certain Mr. Johnson has no plan on achieving one. Irelands Taoiseach Leo Vradkar has stated that “there are big gaps between both sides” and he does not see a deal being reached by the deadline.
What has stuck with me through all these talks on the negotiations is the British media’s lack of coverage on the implications of a no-deal Brexit. Ireland and the Uk have had quite a complex relationship over the years, whether it’s been in sports, music, entertainment industry or economy. It has always appeared to the world as the Irish piggybacking of the British. It’s safe to say that they draw vast similarities to their counterparts due to the fact that they were once their colonisers and they left an imprint on them. Ireland has provided an image to the world that they thrive off the UK, but is this accurate? A tweet by Lord Digby Jones stated that “a no-deal Brexit would seriously damage Ireland; 90% of its trade is with the UK”. This stat is wildly inaccurate and made me realise are the Brits that delusional on where Ireland stands in the world market in contrast to them?
Both Ireland and the UK play a key role in each other’s markets. Since the plans for Brexit were revealed, there has been continuous discussions on its implications for Ireland if a no-deal Brexit is the final outcome. If there is a failure in implementing a backstop for Ireland, we may see this affecting our trade but it seems the British media has failed to identify the drastic effects it will have on their own trade. Pre EU, nearly 100% of Ireland’s trade was with Britain, since then Ireland has diversified its market and is a leading country in international trade. Today only 11% of Irelands goods and services exported are UK bound. May 2019 Ireland exported €13.2 billion worth of goods and services, only €1.25 billion belonged to the UK. But on the other hand, Ireland is the UK’s fifth-largest export market, beating the likes of China and is also their 9th largest source of imports. The Uk has garnered a surplus with Ireland every year over the last 20 years. These are stats that the British media and parliament are not taking into account during negotiations. While the consequences of a no-deal Brexit may shake Irelands trading it is likely to have a much bigger effect on the UK. This no-deal Brexit is an outcome that neither Country should be anticipating.
You might ask yourself why is the prime minister is so hell-bent on achieving a no-deal Brexit? Out of the UK’s top 10 trading partners, 8 reside in the EU/EAA. The only two outside being China and the US, it almost laughable watching Mr. Johnson turn down speculation that his no deal agenda is motivated by a potential trade deal with the US, which MPs are labeling as a Trump Deal Brexit. Shall Great Britain crash out of the EU, this will present an opportunity to a potential trade deal with the US, their number 1 trading partner.
While a no-deal Brexit is essentially illegal, it doesn’t mean we won’t see one. If no deal is achieved by October 19th, the UK must ask for an extension until January 2020. But the Law doesn’t factor whether or not the EU approves this extension. While the EU may hope to achieve a deal, if the prime minister makes is clear and concise that he has no plans on achieving a deal, the EU may well and truly reject the extension leading to a no-deal Brexit. The worst possible scenario!